Handout for the Department Meeting 19920609

Dietz, K., Molineaux, L. and Thomas, A. (1974) A malaria model tested in the African savannah. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 50: 347-357.

References

(a) Ross-Macdonald Model --- deterministic differential equations (original form): ¶ Ross, R. (1916) An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry --- Part I. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Ser A, 92: 204-230.; ¶ Macdonald, G. (1950) The analysis of infection rates in diseases in which superinfection occurs. Tropical Diseases Bulletin, 47(10): 907-915.; ¶ Macdonald, G. (1955) The measurement of malaria transmission. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 48: 295-301.
(b) Development of the Model --- iterative solution, comparison with field data: ¶ Môskovskij, S.D. (1967) A further contribution to the theory of malaria eradication. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 36: 992-996.; ¶ Garrett-Jones, C. (1964) The human blood index of malaria vectors in relation to epidemiological assessment. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 30: 241-261.; ¶ Molineaux, L., Dietz, K. and Thomas, A. (1978) Further epidemiological evaluation of a malaria model. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 56(4): 565-571.; ¶ Molineaux, L., Cornille-Br\"ogger, R., Mathews, H.M. and Storey, J. (1978) Longitudinal serological study of malaria in infants in the West African savanna. Comparisons in infants exposed to, or protected from, transmission from birth. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 56(4): 573-578.; ¶ Molineaux, L., Shidrawi, G.R., Clarke, J.L., Boulzaguet, J.R. and Ashkar, T.S. (1979) Assessment of insecticidal impact on the malaria mosquito's vectorial capacity, from data on the man-biting rate and age-composition. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 57(2): 265-274.; ¶ Nájera, J.A. (1974) A critical review of the field application of a mathematical model of malaria eradication. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 50: 449-457.; ¶ Nedelman, J. (1984) Inoculation and recovery rates in the malaria model of Dietz, Molineaux, and Thomas. Mathematical Biosciences, 69: 209-233.
(c) Evaluation of Intervention Effects: ¶ Collett, D. and Lye, M.S. (1987) Modelling the effect of intervention on the transmission of malaria in East Malaysia. Statistics in Medicine, 6: 853-861.

No.	relation	heterogeneity	immunity	intervention	age structure	major consequences	references
1	original	no	no	no	no	imagicides more efficient than larvicides	Ross (1911), Macdonald (1957)
2	var. of 1	yes	no	no	no	1 underestimates prevalence in low endemicity	Dye and Hasibeder (1986)
3	var. of 1	no	yes (life-long)	no	yes	1 overestimates prevalence in holoendemic area	Diets et al. (1974)
4	var. of 1	no	yes (gradually loss)	no	no	controls often reduce immunity and increase prevalence	Elderkin et al. (1977)
5	var. of 4	no	yes (gradually loss)	asexual-stage (sporozoite or merozoite or gametocyte) vaccination	no	effective for individual	Koella (1991)
6	var. of 4	no	yes (gradually loss for vaccine and life-long for natural immunity)	transmission-blocking (growth-inhibition in mosquito-guts)	no	effective for community	Koella (1991)
7	var. of 2	yes	no	mosquito-nets	no	controls often reduce immunity and increase prevalence	reviewed by Sota (1990)
8	var. of 2	yes (host-preference)	no	no	no	the more the preference, the longer epidemics continue	Kingsolver (1987)
9	var. of 3	no	yes (gradually loss)	asexual-stage (sporozoite or merozoite or gametocyte) vaccination	yes	too complex	Hallonen et al. (1989), Collett et al. (1987)
10	var. of 3	no	yes (gradually loss for vaccine and life-long for natural immunity)	transmission-blocking (growth-inhibition in mosquito-guts)	yes	too complex	Zoysa et al. (1991)
11	var. of 1	no	no	zooprophiraxis	no	sleeping beside domestic animals is effective for control	Sota (1990)

Notes: 1-6 reviewed by Koella (1991)