Demography Special Lecture I, II

Latest update: 16 July 2019 (Tue) | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014

1. Overview

Demography is one of the essential methodology to grasp the characteristics of human population survival. It can support the understanding of epidemiology and public health. This lecture basically use a textbook for basic formal demography and demographic models, followed by several examples of actual demographic researches.

Using computer practices may be helpful for understanding. Bringing your own laptop computer is recommended. Software to be used is GNU R, which is free software (

2. Plan

The lecture is done in first semester on Thursday, 13:10-14:40 at GSICS 206.

  1. [11 April 2019] Introduction (handout)
  2. [18 April 2019] Data collection: Basically 3 ways (Census, Vital Registration and Sample Survey). (handout)
  3. [25 April 2019] Age and sex structure (handout and R code).
  4. [9 May 2019] Period fertility ( handout; R code; Tables in Excel format: 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.7; Tables in tab-delimited text format: 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.7; Exercises data: 4E.1, 4E.2, 4E.3, 4E.4; Data in Excel format: Tables 4E.1-4E.4, Table 5.1-5.5 )

    Appendix: asfrworld.R
    World Fertility 2010-2015
    (animation with emphasizing Japan is made by this code)
  5. [16 May 2019] Cohort fertility (handout; R code; Tables in tab-delimited text: 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6; Table 5.6 Excel Worksheet), (Exercises: Excel format data, Tables in tab-delimited text: 5E-1, 5E-2, 5E-3, 5E-4, 5E-5; R code to answer the exercises of Chapter 5)
  6. [23 May 2019] Mortality and life tables (handout; R code for CDR, IMR, etc.; R code for lifetable; Supplementary explanation; Excel worksheets are also available as tables-6.xls; Additional explanation) The data and answers to Exercises: Excel file, R code and comments.
  7. [30 May 2019] Migration (handout, R code to see the relationship between gross migration and net migration in Japan 2013, R code to compare the population pyramids among all prefectures, R code to see the relationship between PEI [population expanding index] and YP [youth population] by prefecture, R code to see the choropleth map of PEI; Census flows mapper (US Census bureau); Migration expectancy (US Census bureau), link to excel worksheet; R code for migration expectancy (for Table 11.3, Rowland's text); Review of the methods for estimating emigration; Census Survival Ratios method (by IUSSP))
  8. [6 June 2019] Marriage and divorce (handout, R code for text and R code for exercises.) (Updated!! MSSP.dat: Age class specific population with "never married" subpopulation for males and females in Japan, R code to calculate SMAM from MSSP.dat, graph [pdf])
  9. [13 June 2019] Reproductivity (handout, R code for text, R code with comments for exercise, R code to calculate TFR, GRR and NRR for Japan 2010.)
  10. [20 June 2019] Models of age structure (handout, R code for text, R code for exercises.)
  11. [27 June 2019] Model life tables (handout, R code for Chapter 12 and its exercises, R code for Chapter 13) / Report Theme (corrected on 16th July 2019); sample code to read raw data and make table
  12. [4 July 2019] Models of nupitiality and fertility (handout, R code, cf. Bongaarts' proximate determinants model: Johns Hopkins, IUSSP's e-learning material, Application of Bongaarts' proximate determinats model for Bangladesh)
  13. [11 July 2019] International migration and examples of demographic analysis in Japan and the world (lecture given by Dr. Reiko Hayashi, see Presentation (accessible only from kobe-u), UN World Population Prospects, R code to make scattergram and Ukraine's population pyramid from wpp2019, result pdf of the R code, R code to make a population pyramid from wpp2019)
  14. [18 July 2019] Population projections and forecasts (handout, R code, "Lesson 8: The Cohost Component Population Projection Method" at M & E Learning Center, Cohort-component population projections at IUSSP'e-learning)
  15. [25 July 2019] Microsimulation models (handout, simulation conditions setting R code called by other code, calculate initial population and save R code, execute simulation R code)

3. Evaluation

Based on presentation, discussion, and report.

4. Textbook

Newell C (1988) Methods and models in demography. The Guilford Press

(Further Readings)

5. Office hour

For the students of the Graduate School of Health Sciences, Tuesday, 18:00-18:30, at Myodani campus E707. For the students of GSICS, Thusday, 16:40-18:00 at Frontier Building Room 717 (or the lecture room). Taking appointment is recommended.

6. Message to the students

Done in English.

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