Latest update: 10 June 2024 (Mon)

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Demography is one of the essential methodology to grasp the characteristics of human population survival. It can support the understanding of epidemiology and public health. This lecture basically use a textbook for basic formal demography and demographic models, followed by several examples of actual demographic researches.

Using computer practices may be helpful for understanding. Bringing your own laptop computer is recommended. Software to be used is GNU R, which is free software (https://www.r-project.org).

The lecture is done in first semester on Thursday, **13:10-14:40** at GSICS Bldg. Presentation Room and online via Zoom. Please check BEEF+.

- [11 April] Introduction (handout)
- [18 April] Data collection: Basically 3 ways (
**Census**,**Vital Registration**and**Sample Survey**). (handout) - [25 April] Age and sex structure (handout and R code).
- [2 May] Period fertility (
handout;
R code;
Tables in Excel format:
4.1,
4.2,
4.3,
4.4,
4.5,
4.6,
4.7;
Tables in tab-delimited text format:
4.1,
4.2,
4.3,
4.4,
4.5,
4.6,
4.7;
Exercises data:
4E.1,
4E.2,
4E.3,
4E.4;
Data in Excel format:
Tables 4E.1-4E.4, Table 5.1-5.5
)

Appendix: asfrworld.R

(animation with emphasizing Japan is made by this code) - [9 May] Cohort fertility (handout; R code; Tables in tab-delimited text: 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6; Table 5.6 Excel Worksheet), (Exercises: Excel format data, Tables in tab-delimited text: 5E-1, 5E-2, 5E-3, 5E-4, 5E-5; R code to answer the exercises of Chapter 5)
- [16 May] Mortality and life tables (handout; R code for CDR, IMR, etc.; R code for lifetable; Supplementary explanation; Excel worksheets are also available as tables-6.xls; Additional explanation) The data and answers to Exercises: Excel file, R code and comments.
- [23 May] Migration (handout, R code to see the relationship between gross migration and net migration in Japan 2013, R code to compare the population pyramids among all prefectures, R code to see the relationship between PEI [population expanding index, originally named as "Bulge Index"] and YP [youth population] by prefecture, R code to see the choropleth map of PEI; Census flows mapper (US Census bureau); "Moving Trends and Statistics in the U.S. Since COVID-19"(added this link by suggestion, situation in USA since COVID-19 pandemic); Migration expectancy (US Census bureau), link to excel worksheet; R code for migration expectancy (for Table 11.3, Rowland's text); Review of the methods for estimating emigration; Census Survival Ratios method (by IUSSP))
- [30 May] Marriage and divorce (handout, R code for text and R code for exercises.) (MSSP.dat: Age class specific population with "never married" subpopulation for males and females in Japan, R code to calculate SMAM from MSSP.dat, graph [pdf])
- [6 June] Reproductivity (handout, R code for text, R code with comments for exercise, R code to calculate TFR, GRR and NRR for Japan 2010 and 2015.)
- [13 June] Models of age structure (handout, R code for text, R code for exercises.)
*** Report Theme in 2024** - [20 June] Model life tables (handout, R code for Chapter 12 and its exercises, R code for Chapter 13)
- [27 June] Analysis of current demographic data [contents will be shown later] (lecture given by Dr. Reiko Hayashi)
- [4 July] Models of nuptiality and fertility (handout, R code, cf. Bongaarts' proximate determinants model: Johns Hopkins, IUSSP's e-learning material, Islam MM et al. "FERTILITY TRANSITION IN BANGLADESH: UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF THE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS" Journal of Biosocial Science, 36: 351-369. (Application of Bongaarts' proximate determinats model for Bangladesh))
- [11 July] Population projections and forecasts (handout, R code, "Lesson 8: The Cohort Component Population Projection Method" at M & E Learning Center, Cohort-component population projections at IUSSP'e-learning)
- [18 July] Microsimulation models (handout, simulation conditions setting R code called by other code, calculate initial population and save R code, execute simulation R code)

Based on the end-of-term report (80%) and discussion (20%).

Newell C (1988) Methods and models in demography. The Guilford Press

- Preston SH, Heuveline P, Guillot M (2001) Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell Publishing.
- Rowland DT (2003) Demographic methods and concepts. Oxford Univ. Press
- Booth H, Hyndman RJ, Tickle L (2013) Prospective Life Tables. [pdf file]. (Very good explanation of Lee-Carter method.)
- (For Japanese students) Nakazawa M (2020) Learning Demographic Analysis using R [In Japanese, "R ni yoru jinkou bunseki nyumon"] Asakura Shoten. ISBN：978-4-254-12843-7

Please contact with e-mail <minato-nakazawa[at]people.kobe-u.ac.jp> at any time.

Done in English.